August 2026 Market Review – Still Constructive, but Rates and Commodities Matter
August ended up being a pretty quiet month if you only looked at the headline indexes. The S&P 500 did most of its work in the first few trading days and then spent the rest of the month moving sideways.
Under the surface, though, there was quite a bit going on.
In this month-end market review, I take a look at the continued rotation inside technology, including money moving out of semiconductors and into software stocks, why I still think the broader market looks constructive, and what would cause me to change that view.
I also spend some time on what I think continues to be one of the most important stories in the market: interest rates.
The 10-year Treasury yield finished August near a new 52-week high, the 30-year continues to test an important level, and the bond market still appears to be telling us that monetary policy may be too loose.
Finally, I look at the continued strength in commodities, including energy, precious metals, base metals, and agricultural commodities, and why I think broad commodity exposure is becoming increasingly interesting.
I finish with a look at DBMF, a managed futures ETF that can take long and short positions across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. I do not currently own it, but it is something I am taking a pretty hard look at as a possible non-correlated strategy.
Topics covered:
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq support levels
• Rotation from semiconductors into software
• Equal-weight and value stocks
• What the VIX is telling us
• Market breadth and sector leadership
• Why long-term Treasury yields still concern me
• The bond market versus the Federal Reserve
• Strength in oil, gasoline, metals, and agriculture
• Gold and silver
• Why commodities remain historically under-owned
• Managed futures and DBMF
As always, the ETFs, indexes, securities, and strategies discussed in this video are for illustrative and educational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please refer to the disclosures at the beginning and end of the video.
Matt Williams, CFP®
JTM Williams Capital Management
matt@jtmwilliams.com
703-782-3110
jtmwilliams.com
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And with September here, it is officially football season. Let’s go WVU.